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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over De Graafschap.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat De Graafschap 3-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Quarter-finals, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.88 xG and De Graafschap 1.69 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.03 against De Graafschap attack 1.15 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 43% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 35%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 62%, De Graafschap 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

De Graafschap's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights