ADO Den Haag 1-0 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as ADO Den Haag face VVV Venlo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag and VVV Venlo meet at WerkTalent Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
ADO Den Haag (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
ADO Den Haag at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VVV Venlo have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for ADO Den Haag against 1.60 for VVV Venlo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, ADO Den Haag edge it 4 wins to 2, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2025, ended ADO Den Haag 3–0 VVV Venlo — a ADO Den Haag win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
ADO Den Haag half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
VVV Venlo half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 59% versus VVV Venlo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 68% | VVV Venlo 59%). Note also that VVV Venlo surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while ADO Den Haag recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.83 xG and VVV Venlo 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.077 / defence 0.914 | VVV Venlo attack 1.011 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.455. Data: built from ADO Den Haag's last 66 games and VVV Venlo's last 66.
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 48% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 27%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.08 | Draw 4.09 | VVV Venlo 3.65. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.83 / 1.35) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (ADO Den Haag's last 10 home games and VVV Venlo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ADO Den Haag 60% (last 10 home games) | VVV Venlo 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 29 | Venue: WerkTalent Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 48% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG ADO Den Haag 1.83 / VVV Venlo 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.077 / def 0.914 | VVV Venlo attack 1.011 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.35
VVV Venlo xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo FAQs
What time does ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 27 February 2026 at WerkTalent Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo?
ADO Den Haag 1 - 0 VVV Venlo.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at WerkTalent Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo part of?
ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 29) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 48% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both ADO Den Haag and VVV Venlo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ADO Den Haag's attack at 1.08x the league average against VVV Venlo's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (1.01x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from ADO Den Haag's last 66 games and VVV Venlo's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
48%
2.08
24%
4.09
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.18
1.35
VVV Venlo xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
4%
22.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.35 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ADO Den Haag come into this having played 66 games, going 41W 10D 15L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, VVV Venlo sit at 1.18 PPG from 66 outings (22W 12D 32L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
ADO Den Haag's home form reads 22W 3D 8L across their last 33 home games, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, VVV Venlo have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 33 away games (11W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.24 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
VVV Venlo
Current Season
ADO Den Haag (Home) vs VVV Venlo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
VVV Venlo
Current Season
❓ ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo Form FAQs
What form are ADO Den Haag and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 41W 10D 15L in their last 66 games (2.02 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 22W 12D 32L in their last 66 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or VVV Venlo away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.09 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.18 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or VVV Venlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, VVV Venlo in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
ADO Den Haag have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ADO Den Haag won VVV Venlo 0-5 ADO Den Haag on 1 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
ADO Den Haag
3
Draws
2
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and VVV Venlo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, ADO Den Haag have won 5, VVV Venlo have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and VVV Venlo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: ADO Den Haag 1-0 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and VVV Venlo?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 61%, VVV Venlo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for ADO Den Haag and 73% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; VVV Venlo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ADO Den Haag and VVV Venlo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of ADO Den Haag's games and 54% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are ADO Den Haag and VVV Venlo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 73% of VVV Venlo's.
Do ADO Den Haag and VVV Venlo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 82% of VVV Venlo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out VVV Venlo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat VVV Venlo 1-0 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.83 xG and VVV Venlo 1.35 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. ADO Den Haag fell 0.8 short of their projected output. VVV Venlo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.08 / defence 0.91 against VVV Venlo attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 48% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 27%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 68%, VVV Venlo 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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