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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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ADO Den Haag cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Jong Ajax.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Jong Ajax 4-2 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.62 xG and Jong Ajax 0.85 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Ajax outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.05 / defence 0.77 against Jong Ajax attack 0.73 / defence 1.01, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 56% | Draw 25% | Jong Ajax 20%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 65%, Jong Ajax 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Jong Ajax's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights