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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Virtus Entella run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Reggiana.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Virtus Entella beat Reggiana 3-0 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.44 xG and Reggiana 0.98 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Virtus Entella beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Reggiana landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.91 / defence 1.14 against Reggiana attack 0.77 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 46% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 24%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 39%, Reggiana 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Virtus Entella's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Reggiana's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Virtus Entella 1.00 PPG, Reggiana 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Virtus Entella win broke the near-deadlock. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights