Virtus Entella vs Cremonese – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Virtus Entella vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Comunale to take on Virtus Entella. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 February 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Virtus Entella stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Virtus Entella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Virtus Entella have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio Comunale — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Virtus Entella are significantly better at Stadio Comunale than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Virtus Entella 1.10 PPG, Cremonese 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Virtus Entella trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cremonese trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 52% versus Cremonese 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Virtus Entella 38% | Cremonese 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.46 xG and Cremonese 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 1.004 / defence 1.062 | Cremonese attack 0.716 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Virtus Entella games / 2 Cremonese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 49% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 22%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Cremonese 4.55. Virtus Entella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Virtus Entella as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Virtus Entella 80% | Cremonese 20%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 49% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Virtus Entella 1.46 / Cremonese 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 1.004 / def 1.062 | Cremonese attack 0.716 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Cremonese xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Cremonese kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Cremonese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Stadio Comunale.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Cremonese part of?
Virtus Entella vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 49% chance of winning, Cremonese a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Virtus Entella and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Virtus Entella and Cremonese in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Virtus Entella's attack at 1.00x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Virtus Entella's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.47
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.36
0.90
Cremonese xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
5%
19.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 0.90 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Virtus Entella's recent record stands at 10W 12D 18L from 40 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Virtus Entella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 22L across 40 games — 0.85 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Virtus Entella on 1.05 PPG, Cremonese on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Virtus Entella have managed 9W 7D 4L from 20 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Virtus Entella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cremonese's away record stands at 5W 3D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Virtus Entella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Virtus Entella are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.80 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 10W 12D 18L in their last 40 games (1.05 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 8W 10D 22L in their last 40 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Cremonese away?
Virtus Entella's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 1.70 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.90 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Virtus Entella 70%, Cremonese 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Virtus Entella) and 40% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Virtus Entella's recent matches and 30% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Virtus Entella vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 40% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Cremonese tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.