Juve Stabia vs Modena – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Juve Stabia versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 27 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia's home record at Stadio Romeo Menti: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Modena have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Juve Stabia, 1.10 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Juve Stabia have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Modena in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Juve Stabia 2W, Modena 3W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Juve Stabia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 56% versus Modena 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 46% | Modena 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.16 xG and Modena 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.010 / defence 0.949 | Modena attack 1.176 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Juve Stabia games / 40 Modena games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 32% | Draw 29% | Modena 39%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Modena 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 70% | Modena 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 32% | Draw 29% | Modena 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Juve Stabia 1.16 / Modena 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.010 / def 0.949 | Modena attack 1.176 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Modena (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Modena xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Modena kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Modena is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Modena part of?
Juve Stabia vs Modena is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 32% chance of winning, Modena a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Juve Stabia and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Modena?
Record (5 meetings): Juve Stabia 2W | Draws 0 | Modena 3W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Modena in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Modena's attack (1.18x) against Juve Stabia's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
32%
3.16
29%
3.41
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.48
1.32
Modena xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
8%
11.77
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.32 for Modena, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 13W 17D 11L from 41 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 14L across 41 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.49 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 8W 9D 2L from 19 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 6W 6D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.32 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Modena in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Modena in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 13W 17D 11L in their last 41 games (1.37 PPG), while Modena have gone 17W 10D 14L in their last 41 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Modena away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.74 PPG; Modena away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Modena in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 3-0 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
0
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Modena?
From 5 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Modena have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Modena 0-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 53%, Modena 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Juve Stabia) and 37% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Modena in 32%; Modena in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 42% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 37% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Modena tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Modena in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.