Juve Stabia vs Modena – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Juve Stabia versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 27 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Juve Stabia (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia's home record at Stadio Romeo Menti: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Modena have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Modena are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Juve Stabia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Modena in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Juve Stabia 2W, Modena 3W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Juve Stabia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 56% versus Modena 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 44% | Modena 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.13 xG and Modena 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.866 / defence 1.084 | Modena attack 1.103 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.271. Data: 44 Juve Stabia games / 45 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 27% | Draw 28% | Modena 45%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Modena 2.22. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 70% | Modena 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 27% | Draw 28% | Modena 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Juve Stabia 1.13 / Modena 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.866 / def 1.084 | Modena attack 1.103 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Modena (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Modena xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Modena kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Modena is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Modena part of?
Juve Stabia vs Modena is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 27% chance of winning, Modena a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Juve Stabia and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Modena?
Record (5 meetings): Juve Stabia 2W | Draws 0 | Modena 3W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Modena in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Modena (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Modena's attack (1.10x) against Juve Stabia's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
27%
3.70
28%
3.59
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.64
1.52
Modena xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
6%
16.91
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.52 for Modena, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 13W 21D 12L from 46 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 16L across 46 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.48 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 8W 11D 3L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 7W 7D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.33 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Modena in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 13W 21D 12L in their last 46 games (1.30 PPG), while Modena have gone 19W 11D 16L in their last 46 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Modena away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.59 PPG; Modena away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Modena in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 3-0 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
0
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Modena?
From 5 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Modena have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Modena 0-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 50%, Modena 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Juve Stabia) and 41% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Modena in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 50% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 41% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Modena tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Modena in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.