Venezia 2-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 51% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Venezia host Palermo at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B (matchday 38). Kick-off is Friday 8 May 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Venezia — last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Venezia at home: 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Venezia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Palermo have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palermo's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Venezia 2.20 PPG, Palermo 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Venezia: 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Palermo, with 1 draw.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2025, ended Venezia 0–0 Palermo — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Venezia an edge — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Palermo in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 53% versus Palermo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 51% | Palermo 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Venezia surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Palermo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.66 xG and Palermo 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.328 / defence 0.916 | Palermo attack 1.047 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.062. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.328 — their 1.66 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Venezia's last 37 games and Palermo's last 75.
Result probabilities: Venezia 51% | Draw 28% | Palermo 22%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.97 | Draw 3.63 | Palermo 4.61. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 51% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Venezia 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Venezia's last 10 home games and Palermo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Venezia 50% (last 10 home games) | Palermo 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 38 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 51% | Draw 28% | Palermo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Venezia 1.66 / Palermo 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.328 / def 0.916 | Palermo attack 1.047 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Venezia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Palermo xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Venezia vs Palermo FAQs
What time does Venezia vs Palermo kick off?
Venezia vs Palermo kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 8 May 2026 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Palermo?
Venezia 2 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Venezia vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Palermo part of?
Venezia vs Palermo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 38) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 51% chance of winning, Palermo a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Venezia and Palermo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Venezia vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Venezia's attack rating (1.33) and Palermo's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Venezia's last 37 games and Palermo's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
51%
1.97
28%
3.63
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.68
1.02
Palermo xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
4%
24.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Venezia vs Palermo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Venezia and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Venezia and 1.02 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Venezia's recent record stands at 28W 24D 23L from 75 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 34W 22D 19L across 75 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 1.44 PPG, Palermo on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 21W 5D 11L from their last 37 home games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Palermo's away record stands at 12W 13D 12L across their last 37 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.51 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
Venezia (Home) vs Palermo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Venezia
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
❓ Venezia vs Palermo Form FAQs
What form are Venezia and Palermo in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 28W 24D 23L in their last 75 games (1.44 PPG), while Palermo have gone 34W 22D 19L in their last 75 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Palermo away?
Venezia's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.84 PPG; Palermo away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Venezia or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Palermo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 8 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Mar 2024, when Venezia won Palermo 0-3 Venezia.
Venezia's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Venezia
1
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Venezia vs Palermo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Palermo?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Venezia have won 6, Palermo have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Venezia and Palermo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 May 2026: Venezia 2-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Palermo?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 43%, Palermo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Venezia) and 51% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Venezia have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Venezia vs Palermo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Venezia and Palermo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Venezia's recent matches and 62% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Venezia and Palermo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Venezia's recent games and 51% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Palermo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Venezia's recent matches and 76% of Palermo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Palermo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Palermo 2-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.66 xG and Palermo 1.02 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Palermo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.33 / defence 0.92 against Palermo attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 51% | Draw 28% | Palermo 22%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 51%, Palermo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Palermo's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.44 PPG, Palermo 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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