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Dominant Venezia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mantova.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Mantova 3-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.55 xG and Mantova 0.73 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.32 / defence 0.91 against Mantova attack 0.75 / defence 0.88, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 55% | Draw 30% | Mantova 15%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 47%, Mantova 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Mantova's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Venezia 1.00 PPG, Mantova 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights