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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Venezia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Juve Stabia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Juve Stabia 3-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.85 xG and Juve Stabia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.32 / defence 0.93 against Juve Stabia attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 58% | Draw 25% | Juve Stabia 17%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 50%, Juve Stabia 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Venezia 1.39 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights