Venezia 3-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Venezia at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Juve Stabia encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Venezia and Juve Stabia meet at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Venezia's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Venezia have gone 9W 0D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Venezia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Juve Stabia have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Venezia's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Juve Stabia's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Venezia, 0 for Juve Stabia and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Venezia 0–0 Juve Stabia — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 53% versus Juve Stabia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 50% | Juve Stabia 49%). Note also that Juve Stabia surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Venezia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.85 xG and Juve Stabia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.319 / defence 0.934 | Juve Stabia attack 0.881 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.101. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.319 — their 1.85 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Venezia's last 32 games and Juve Stabia's last 70.

Result probabilities: Venezia 58% | Draw 25% | Juve Stabia 17%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.72 | Draw 3.95 | Juve Stabia 6.02. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (58%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Venezia 40% (last 10 home games) | Juve Stabia 50% (last 10 away games).

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