Ternana 1-1 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ternana face Spezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ternana host Spezia at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 11 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ternana stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Ternana at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Spezia have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Spezia have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ternana at 1.40 PPG versus Spezia's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Ternana have won 0, Spezia 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Ternana 2–2 Spezia — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ternana in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Spezia in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 56% versus Spezia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 54% | Spezia 51%). Note also that Spezia surrender HT leads in 60% of cases while Ternana recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.81 xG and Spezia 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.915 / defence 0.916 | Spezia attack 0.911 / defence 1.483. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.208. Spezia's defence rating of 1.483 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ternana's projected output up. Data: built from Ternana's last 61 games and Spezia's last 23.
Result probabilities: Ternana 56% | Draw 25% | Spezia 20%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 1.80 | Draw 4.07 | Spezia 5.02. The model has a clear lean to Ternana (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ternana are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ternana 50% (last 10 home games) | Spezia 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 56% | Draw 25% | Spezia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Ternana 1.81 / Spezia 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.915 / def 0.916 | Spezia attack 0.911 / def 1.483 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Ternana (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Spezia xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ternana vs Spezia FAQs
What time does Ternana vs Spezia kick off?
Ternana vs Spezia kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Spezia?
Ternana 1 - 1 Spezia.
Where is Ternana vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Spezia part of?
Ternana vs Spezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 56% chance of winning, Spezia a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ternana and Spezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ternana vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.92) and Spezia's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ternana's last 61 games and Spezia's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
56%
1.80
25%
4.07
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.82
1.01
Spezia xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
16%
6.14
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
3%
30.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ternana vs Spezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Ternana and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Ternana and 1.01 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Spezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ternana's recent record stands at 16W 16D 29L from 61 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Spezia, meanwhile, have gone 9W 22D 30L across 61 games — 0.80 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.05 PPG, Spezia on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 11W 9D 11L from their last 31 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spezia's away record stands at 5W 8D 18L across their last 31 away games, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.84 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Spezia
Blended
Ternana (Home) vs Spezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ternana
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Ternana vs Spezia Form FAQs
What form are Ternana and Spezia in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 16W 16D 29L in their last 61 games (1.05 PPG), while Spezia have gone 9W 22D 30L in their last 61 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Spezia away?
Ternana's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.35 PPG; Spezia away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ternana
2
Draws
0
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Ternana vs Spezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Spezia?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ternana have won 0, Spezia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Spezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 February 2024: Ternana 1-1 Spezia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 48%, Spezia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ternana) and 58% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ternana have failed to score in 29% of games; Spezia in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ternana vs Spezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ternana and Spezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Ternana's recent matches and 48% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ternana and Spezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ternana's recent games and 58% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Spezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Ternana's recent matches and 77% of Spezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana and Spezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana and Spezia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.81 xG and Spezia 1.01 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ternana fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.92 / defence 0.92 against Spezia attack 0.91 / defence 1.48, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 56% | Draw 25% | Spezia 20%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 54%, Spezia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.05 PPG, Spezia 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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