Reggiana 0-2 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ternana make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Reggiana in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reggiana have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 games at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ternana (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Reggiana, 1.40 for Ternana — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Reggiana register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Ternana in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Reggiana 0W, Ternana 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Ternana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reggiana 62% and Ternana 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 46% | Ternana 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.36 xG and Ternana 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.816 / defence 1.091 | Ternana attack 1.017 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.198. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing Reggiana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Reggiana games / 62 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 36% | Draw 28% | Ternana 35%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Ternana 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reggiana as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reggiana 70% | Ternana 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 36% | Draw 28% | Ternana 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Reggiana 1.36 / Ternana 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.816 / def 1.091 | Ternana attack 1.017 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Ternana xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Ternana kick off?
Reggiana vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Ternana?
Reggiana 0 - 2 Ternana.
Where is Reggiana vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Ternana part of?
Reggiana vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 36% chance of winning, Ternana a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Reggiana and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Ternana?
Record (1 meetings): Reggiana 0W | Draws 0 | Ternana 1W.
What form are Reggiana and Ternana in?
Reggiana (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Ternana (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reggiana's attack rating (0.82) and Ternana's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (1.02x) against Reggiana's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.51
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.69
1.33
Ternana xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.33 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggiana come into this having played 24 games, going 6W 12D 6L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ternana sit at 0.92 PPG from 24 outings (5W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Reggiana against 0.92 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Reggiana's home form reads 2W 8D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Ternana have taken 0.73 points per game from 11 outings (2W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reggiana are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reggiana have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Ternana in 67%.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Ternana in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 6W 12D 6L in their last 24 games (1.25 PPG), while Ternana have gone 5W 7D 12L in their last 24 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Ternana away?
Reggiana's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.27 PPG; Ternana away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggiana
0
Draws
2
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Ternana?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 0, Ternana have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Reggiana 0-2 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Reggiana, 82% for Ternana — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Reggiana) and 82% (Ternana).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Reggiana's games and 82% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Reggiana's recent games and 82% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Ternana tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Ternana in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Reggiana 0-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.36 xG and Ternana 1.33 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Reggiana fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.82 / defence 1.09 against Ternana attack 1.02 / defence 1.25, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 36% | Draw 28% | Ternana 35%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ternana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 46%, Ternana 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Ternana's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.25 PPG, Ternana 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.