Cittadella 1-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cittadella at 37%, yet the head-to-head data favours Parma — this Cittadella vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cittadella welcome Parma to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Serie B (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 10 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cittadella stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Cittadella have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Parma — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Parma's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cittadella 1.70 PPG, Parma 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Parma have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Cittadella.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Cittadella 0–2 Parma — a Parma win.
Parma have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Cittadella in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Parma in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 48% versus Parma 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 39% | Parma 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.41 xG and Parma 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 1.148 / defence 0.981 | Parma attack 1.183 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.192. Data: built from Cittadella's last 61 games and Parma's last 61.
Result probabilities: Cittadella 37% | Draw 26% | Parma 36%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 2.67 | Draw 3.81 | Parma 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cittadella at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cittadella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cittadella's last 10 home games and Parma's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cittadella 70% (last 10 home games) | Parma 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 37% | Draw 26% | Parma 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Cittadella 1.41 / Parma 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 1.148 / def 0.981 | Parma attack 1.183 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Parma xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cittadella vs Parma FAQs
What time does Cittadella vs Parma kick off?
Cittadella vs Parma kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Parma?
Cittadella 1 - 2 Parma.
Where is Cittadella vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Parma part of?
Cittadella vs Parma is a Serie B fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 37% chance of winning, Parma a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cittadella and Parma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cittadella vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cittadella's attack rating (1.15) and Parma's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Cittadella's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cittadella's last 61 games and Parma's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
37%
2.67
26%
3.81
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.79
1.38
Parma xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
9%
10.66
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cittadella vs Parma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.38 for Parma, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cittadella's recent record stands at 19W 22D 20L from 61 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 31W 15D 15L across 61 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cittadella heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cittadella have managed 11W 10D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 13W 8D 9L across their last 30 away games, a 1.57 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cittadella are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.49 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Parma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Parma
Blended
Cittadella (Home) vs Parma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cittadella
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Cittadella vs Parma Form FAQs
What form are Cittadella and Parma in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 19W 22D 20L in their last 61 games (1.30 PPG), while Parma have gone 31W 15D 15L in their last 61 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.43 PPG; Parma away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Parma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Parma have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Cittadella's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cittadella
1
Draws
5
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Cittadella vs Parma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Parma?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cittadella have won 0, Parma have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Parma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2024: Cittadella 1-2 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 40%, Parma 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cittadella) and 50% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Parma in 33%; Cittadella have failed to score in 43% of games; Parma in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cittadella vs Parma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cittadella and Parma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cittadella's recent matches and 47% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cittadella and Parma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cittadella's recent games and 50% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Parma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Cittadella's recent matches and 73% of Parma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat Cittadella 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Cittadella 1-2 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.41 xG and Parma 1.38 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Parma attack 1.18 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 37% | Draw 26% | Parma 36%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 39%, Parma 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cittadella (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 24
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →