Ternana 3-1 Cittadella – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Ternana take on Cittadella.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Cittadella in Serie B (matchday 21). Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form

Ternana (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Ternana have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Cittadella have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Cittadella's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Cittadella are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Ternana edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Ternana 2–2 Cittadella — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Cittadella goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 57% versus Cittadella 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 55% | Cittadella 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ternana surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Cittadella have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.86 xG and Cittadella 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.850 / defence 0.913 | Cittadella attack 0.807 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.188. Cittadella bring a tight defence (rating 0.788, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Ternana's projected output down. Data: built from Ternana's last 58 games and Cittadella's last 58.

Result probabilities: Ternana 32% | Draw 36% | Cittadella 32%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 3.17 | Draw 2.77 | Cittadella 3.10. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Ternana's lower xG of 0.86 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Picks & Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.74 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 75% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Ternana's last 10 home games and Cittadella's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ternana 50% (last 10 home games) | Cittadella 60% (last 10 away games).

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