Ternana 1-0 Catanzaro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Catanzaro at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Catanzaro encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ternana welcome Catanzaro to Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B (matchday 37). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ternana stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ternana's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Catanzaro have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Catanzaro's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Catanzaro are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Ternana have won 0, Catanzaro 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Ternana 1–2 Catanzaro — a Catanzaro win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ternana trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Catanzaro trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 94% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 58% versus Catanzaro 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 50% | Catanzaro 56%). Note also that Catanzaro surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Ternana recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.86 xG and Catanzaro 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.722 / defence 0.889 | Catanzaro attack 1.126 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.176. Ternana's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Ternana's last 74 games and Catanzaro's last 36.
Result probabilities: Ternana 25% | Draw 34% | Catanzaro 41%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 4.00 | Draw 2.96 | Catanzaro 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Catanzaro as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Catanzaro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ternana's last 10 home games and Catanzaro's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ternana 50% (last 10 home games) | Catanzaro 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Catanzaro | Competition: Serie B, matchday 37 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 25% | Draw 34% | Catanzaro 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Ternana 0.86 / Catanzaro 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.722 / def 0.889 | Catanzaro attack 1.126 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Catanzaro (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Catanzaro xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ternana vs Catanzaro FAQs
What time does Ternana vs Catanzaro kick off?
Ternana vs Catanzaro kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Catanzaro?
Ternana 1 - 0 Catanzaro.
Where is Ternana vs Catanzaro being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Catanzaro part of?
Ternana vs Catanzaro is a Serie B fixture (matchday 37) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Catanzaro?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 25% chance of winning, Catanzaro a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Catanzaro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Catanzaro?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ternana and Catanzaro will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Ternana vs Catanzaro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.72) and Catanzaro's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Catanzaro's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ternana's last 74 games and Catanzaro's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Catanzaro Win
25%
4.00
34%
2.96
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.04
1.18
Catanzaro xG
4.00
25%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
8%
12.98
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 15.3 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ternana vs Catanzaro Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Catanzaro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ternana and Catanzaro expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Ternana and 1.18 for Catanzaro, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Catanzaro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ternana's recent record stands at 9W 10D 17L from 36 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Catanzaro, meanwhile, have gone 17W 9D 10L across 36 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Catanzaro by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ternana heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 4W 7D 7L from their last 18 home games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Catanzaro's away record stands at 8W 5D 5L across their last 18 away games, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Catanzaro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Catanzaro are on 1.61 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Current Season
Catanzaro
Current Season
Ternana (Home) vs Catanzaro (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ternana
Current Season
Catanzaro
Current Season
❓ Ternana vs Catanzaro Form FAQs
What form are Ternana and Catanzaro in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 games (1.03 PPG), while Catanzaro have gone 17W 9D 10L in their last 36 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Catanzaro away?
Catanzaro's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.06 PPG; Catanzaro away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 5 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ternana
0
Draws
1
Catanzaro
Recent Meetings
❓ Ternana vs Catanzaro H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Catanzaro?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ternana have won 1, Catanzaro have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Catanzaro last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 May 2024: Ternana 1-0 Catanzaro.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Catanzaro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 44%, Catanzaro 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Ternana) and 50% (Catanzaro).
On the defensive side: Ternana have failed to score in 44% of games; Catanzaro in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Catanzaro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ternana vs Catanzaro Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ternana and Catanzaro matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ternana's recent matches and 56% of Catanzaro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ternana and Catanzaro matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Ternana's recent games and 50% of Catanzaro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Catanzaro matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Ternana's recent matches and 94% of Catanzaro's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ternana defy the odds to beat Catanzaro 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Catanzaro 1-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.86 xG and Catanzaro 1.18 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Catanzaro landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.72 / defence 0.89 against Catanzaro attack 1.13 / defence 0.97, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 25% | Draw 34% | Catanzaro 41%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Ternana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 50%, Catanzaro 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Catanzaro's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Catanzaro arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Ternana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Catanzaro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 37
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →