Sudtirol 0-1 Virtus Entella – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sudtirol at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella encounter.

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Match Analysis

Sudtirol host Virtus Entella at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Sudtirol — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Across their last 10 games, Virtus Entella have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Virtus Entella away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On current form, Sudtirol have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Sudtirol, 0 for Virtus Entella and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2025, ended Sudtirol 1–1 Virtus Entella — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Virtus Entella in-play and half-time data (last 28 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 54% versus Virtus Entella 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 39% | Virtus Entella 36%). Note also that Virtus Entella surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Sudtirol recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.54 xG and Virtus Entella 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.945 / defence 0.783 | Virtus Entella attack 0.582 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.155. Virtus Entella's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sudtirol's projected output up. Virtus Entella's attack rating of 0.582 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.53. Sudtirol have a tight defence (rating 0.783), which is pulling Virtus Entella's projected output down. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 66 games and Virtus Entella's last 28.

Result probabilities: Sudtirol 61% | Draw 27% | Virtus Entella 11%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 1.63 | Draw 3.67 | Virtus Entella 8.76. The model has a clear lean to Sudtirol (61%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Virtus Entella's lower xG of 0.53 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sudtirol's last 10 home games and Virtus Entella's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 50% (last 10 home games) | Virtus Entella 40% (last 10 away games).

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