🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Spezia 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol beat Spezia 2-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 0.98 xG and Spezia 1.07 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.74 / defence 1.02 against Spezia attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 31% | Draw 34% | Spezia 35%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 48%, Spezia 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Spezia's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.11 PPG, Spezia 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights