Sudtirol 2-1 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Spezia (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sudtirol face Spezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 19 as Sudtirol welcome Spezia to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sudtirol are significantly better at Stadio Marco Druso than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spezia have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Spezia — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Sudtirol have won 0, Spezia 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Spezia in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 59% versus Spezia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 48% | Spezia 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 0.98 xG and Spezia 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.736 / defence 1.021 | Spezia attack 1.015 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.037. Sudtirol's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Sudtirol games / 56 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 31% | Draw 34% | Spezia 35%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Spezia 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 50% | Spezia 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 31% | Draw 34% | Spezia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Sudtirol 0.98 / Spezia 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.736 / def 1.021 | Spezia attack 1.015 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Spezia (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Spezia xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Spezia kick off?
Sudtirol vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Spezia?
Sudtirol 2 - 1 Spezia.
Where is Sudtirol vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Spezia part of?
Sudtirol vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 31% chance of winning, Spezia a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sudtirol and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Spezia?
Record (4 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 2 | Spezia 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Spezia in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Spezia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
31%
3.25
34%
2.96
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.06
1.07
Spezia xG
3.25
31%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.7 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.07 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 14W 20D 22L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spezia's form line: 21W 19D 16L from 56 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.11 PPG, Spezia on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.22 PPG from 27 outings (8W 9D 10L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 8W 12D 7L from 27 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.36 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Spezia in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 14W 20D 22L in their last 56 games (1.11 PPG), while Spezia have gone 21W 19D 16L in their last 56 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Spezia away?
Spezia's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.22 PPG; Spezia away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Spezia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Spezia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Spezia won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
2
Draws
3
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Spezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Spezia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Spezia 6-1 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 67%, Spezia 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sudtirol) and 30% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Spezia in 44%; Sudtirol have failed to score in 26% of games; Spezia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 41% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sudtirol's recent games and 30% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Spezia tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Spezia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Spezia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Spezia 2-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 0.98 xG and Spezia 1.07 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.74 / defence 1.02 against Spezia attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 31% | Draw 34% | Spezia 35%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 48%, Spezia 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.11 PPG, Spezia 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.