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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sudtirol and Spezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 28, as Sudtirol and Spezia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 0.89 xG and Spezia 1.45 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.02 / defence 1.18 against Spezia attack 1.11 / defence 0.72, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 21% | Draw 30% | Spezia 48%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 52%, Spezia 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Spezia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.17 PPG, Spezia 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights