Sudtirol 1-1 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 28 as Sudtirol welcome Spezia to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 February 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Marco Druso this season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spezia have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sudtirol at 1.50 PPG versus Spezia's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sudtirol have won 0, Spezia 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with Spezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Spezia in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 52% versus Spezia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 52% | Spezia 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 0.89 xG and Spezia 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.017 / defence 1.180 | Spezia attack 1.112 / defence 0.722. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.104. Spezia's defence strength of 0.722 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 Sudtirol games / 65 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 21% | Draw 30% | Spezia 48%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Spezia 2.08. Spezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 70% | Spezia 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 21% | Draw 30% | Spezia 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Sudtirol 0.89 / Spezia 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.017 / def 1.180 | Spezia attack 1.112 / def 0.722 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Spezia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Spezia xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Spezia kick off?
Sudtirol vs Spezia kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Spezia?
Sudtirol 1 - 1 Spezia.
Where is Sudtirol vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Spezia part of?
Sudtirol vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 21% chance of winning, Spezia a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sudtirol and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Spezia?
Record (3 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 1 | Spezia 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Spezia in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Spezia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sudtirol's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
21%
4.71
30%
3.30
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.34
1.45
Spezia xG
4.71
21%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
5%
20.06
20%
5.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 14.0 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.45 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 20W 16D 29L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spezia's form line: 22W 28D 15L from 65 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.17 PPG, Spezia on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.28 PPG from 32 outings (11W 8D 13L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 8W 15D 9L from 32 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.18 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Spezia in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 20W 16D 29L in their last 65 games (1.17 PPG), while Spezia have gone 22W 28D 15L in their last 65 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Spezia away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.28 PPG; Spezia away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Spezia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Spezia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Spezia won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
2
Draws
3
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Spezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Spezia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Spezia 6-1 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 53%, Spezia 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sudtirol) and 41% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Spezia in 38%; Sudtirol have failed to score in 31% of games; Spezia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 41% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Sudtirol's recent games and 41% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Spezia tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Spezia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Spezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 28, as Sudtirol and Spezia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 0.89 xG and Spezia 1.45 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.02 / defence 1.18 against Spezia attack 1.11 / defence 0.72, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 21% | Draw 30% | Spezia 48%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 52%, Spezia 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.17 PPG, Spezia 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.