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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sudtirol cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Reggiana.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol beat Reggiana 3-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.33 xG and Reggiana 1.13 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Reggiana attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 38% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 28%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 57%, Reggiana 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Reggiana's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.21 PPG, Reggiana 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights