Sudtirol 3-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sudtirol and Reggiana meet at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sudtirol's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Reggiana (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Reggiana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reggiana's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sudtirol have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Reggiana in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sudtirol, 1 for Reggiana and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Sudtirol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Reggiana — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 60% versus Reggiana 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 57% | Reggiana 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.33 xG and Reggiana 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.034 / defence 1.063 | Reggiana attack 0.934 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.140. Data: 42 Sudtirol games / 42 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 38% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 28%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Reggiana 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 60% | Reggiana 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 38% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Sudtirol 1.33 / Reggiana 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.034 / def 1.063 | Reggiana attack 0.934 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Reggiana xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Reggiana kick off?
Sudtirol vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Reggiana?
Sudtirol 3 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Sudtirol vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Reggiana part of?
Sudtirol vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 38% chance of winning, Reggiana a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sudtirol and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Reggiana?
Record (4 meetings): Sudtirol 2W | Draws 1 | Reggiana 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Reggiana in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Reggiana (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sudtirol's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (0.93x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
38%
2.67
35%
2.88
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.47
1.13
Reggiana xG
2.67
38%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
7%
13.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.13 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sudtirol come into this having played 42 games, going 13W 12D 17L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.17 PPG from 42 outings (12W 13D 17L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Reggiana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.17 for Reggiana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sudtirol's home form reads 7W 7D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (5W 6D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.14 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Reggiana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 12W 13D 17L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Reggiana away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.33 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sudtirol have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sudtirol won 0-4 on 3 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Reggiana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sudtirol
1
Draws
1
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Reggiana?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 4, Reggiana have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Reggiana 0-4 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Reggiana?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 71%, Reggiana 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Sudtirol) and 43% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Reggiana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Sudtirol's games and 57% of Reggiana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Sudtirol's recent games and 43% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Reggiana tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Reggiana 3-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.33 xG and Reggiana 1.13 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Reggiana attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 38% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 28%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 57%, Reggiana 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Reggiana's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.21 PPG, Reggiana 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.