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Dominant Sudtirol run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Padova.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol beat Padova 3-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 0.97 xG and Padova 0.84 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Padova landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Padova attack 0.79 / defence 0.90, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 37% | Draw 33% | Padova 30%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 30%, Padova 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Padova's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.10 PPG, Padova 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Padova (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights