🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Padova make the trip to Stadio Marco Druso to face Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Sudtirol (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Padova's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Padova's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Sudtirol, 1.20 for Padova — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sudtirol 0W, Padova 0W, 1D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Sudtirol — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Padova — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 60% versus Padova 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 30% | Padova 35%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 0.97 xG and Padova 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.851 / defence 1.026 | Padova attack 0.788 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.038. Data: 58 Sudtirol games / 20 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sudtirol 37% | Draw 33% | Padova 30%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Padova 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 50% | Padova 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights