Sudtirol 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Cosenza at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 2W 0D 3L from 5 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cosenza have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cosenza's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Sudtirol's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cosenza in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 40% versus Cosenza 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 60% | Cosenza 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.04 xG and Cosenza 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.910 / defence 1.209 | Cosenza attack 0.842 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.078. Data: 5 Sudtirol games / 43 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 34% | Draw 30% | Cosenza 37%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Cosenza 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 40% | Cosenza 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 34% | Draw 30% | Cosenza 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Sudtirol 1.04 / Cosenza 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.910 / def 1.209 | Cosenza attack 0.842 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Cosenza xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Cosenza kick off?
Sudtirol vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Cosenza?
Sudtirol 1 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Sudtirol vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Cosenza part of?
Sudtirol vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 34% chance of winning, Cosenza a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sudtirol and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Cosenza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Cosenza in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Cosenza (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.38
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.14
1.10
Cosenza xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.10 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 2W 0D 3L from 5 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 2L across 5 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.20 PPG, Cosenza on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Cosenza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sudtirol go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
3
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Cosenza have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Sudtirol 2-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Cosenza?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 40%, Cosenza 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sudtirol) and 20% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 40% of games; Cosenza in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 40% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Sudtirol's recent games and 20% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Cosenza tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 6, as Sudtirol and Cosenza drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.04 xG and Cosenza 1.10 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.91 / defence 1.21 against Cosenza attack 0.84 / defence 0.90, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 34% | Draw 30% | Cosenza 37%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 60%, Cosenza 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.20 PPG, Cosenza 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.