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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sudtirol and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol and Juve Stabia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.03 xG and Juve Stabia 1.05 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.71 / defence 1.09 against Juve Stabia attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 33% | Draw 34% | Juve Stabia 34%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 49%, Juve Stabia 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.15 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights