🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sudtirol.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Sudtirol 1-3 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 0.92 xG and Frosinone 1.16 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Frosinone outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.73 / defence 0.80 against Frosinone attack 1.33 / defence 0.92, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 27% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 40%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 49%, Frosinone 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Frosinone's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.22 PPG, Frosinone 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights