🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Spezia and Virtus Entella share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 23, as Spezia and Virtus Entella drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.30 xG and Virtus Entella 0.77 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.82 / defence 1.07 against Virtus Entella attack 0.69 / defence 1.22, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 48% | Draw 30% | Virtus Entella 22%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 36%, Virtus Entella 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Virtus Entella's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Spezia 0.91 PPG, Virtus Entella 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights