Spezia 4-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Monza (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Spezia face Monza.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Alberto Picco to face Spezia in Serie B (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Spezia have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Spezia's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Monza's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Monza have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Monza are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Monza have the stronger record — 3 wins to Spezia's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Spezia 0–1 Monza — a Monza win.
Monza have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 47% versus Monza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 38% | Monza 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.70 xG and Monza 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.686 / defence 1.073 | Monza attack 1.034 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.155. Spezia's attack rating of 0.686 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Data: built from Spezia's last 66 games and Monza's last 28.
Result probabilities: Spezia 19% | Draw 32% | Monza 49%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 5.19 | Draw 3.16 | Monza 2.04. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Spezia's last 10 home games and Monza's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Spezia 50% (last 10 home games) | Monza 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 19% | Draw 32% | Monza 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Spezia 0.70 / Monza 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.686 / def 1.073 | Monza attack 1.034 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Monza (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Monza xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Monza FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Monza kick off?
Spezia vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Monza?
Spezia 4 - 2 Monza.
Where is Spezia vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Monza part of?
Spezia vs Monza is a Serie B fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 19% chance of winning, Monza a 49% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Spezia and Monza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Spezia vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.69) and Monza's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (1.03x) against Spezia's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 66 games and Monza's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
19%
5.19
32%
3.16
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Spezia xG
Total xG
1.99
1.28
Monza xG
5.19
19%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
49%
2.02
Win to Nil
5%
18.72
24%
4.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 17.6 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Monza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Spezia and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Spezia and 1.28 for Monza, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Spezia have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 23W 22D 21L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Monza's form line: 21W 15D 30L from 66 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Spezia against 1.18 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 33 home games (14W 8D 11L).
On the road, Monza have gone 9W 8D 16L from their last 33 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.09 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
Spezia (Home) vs Monza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Spezia vs Monza Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Monza in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 23W 22D 21L in their last 66 games (1.38 PPG), while Monza have gone 21W 15D 30L in their last 66 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Monza away?
Spezia's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.52 PPG; Monza away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Spezia or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Monza in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. They cover more than one competition — Serie A, Serie B. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spezia
0
Draws
3
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Monza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Monza?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 1, Monza have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Monza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Spezia 4-2 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Monza see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 52%, Monza 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Spezia) and 48% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Monza in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Monza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Monza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Spezia's recent matches and 48% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Spezia and Monza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Spezia's recent games and 48% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Monza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Spezia's recent matches and 58% of Monza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Monza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Monza 4-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.70 xG and Monza 1.28 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.69 / defence 1.07 against Monza attack 1.03 / defence 0.80, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 19% | Draw 32% | Monza 49%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Spezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 38%, Monza 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.38 PPG, Monza 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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