Cittadella 0-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cittadella at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cittadella vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato plays host to Cittadella versus Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Wednesday 1 March 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cittadella have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cittadella have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Brescia (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Brescia have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Cittadella's favour (1.40 vs 0.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cittadella, 0 for Brescia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cittadella — key trading statistics (64 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Brescia — key trading statistics (64 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 41% versus Brescia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cittadella 34% | Brescia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.55 xG and Brescia 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.994 / defence 1.079 | Brescia attack 0.711 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.015. Brescia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing Cittadella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Cittadella games / 64 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 55% | Draw 28% | Brescia 18%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Brescia 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Cittadella (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cittadella are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Cittadella 20% | Brescia 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Mar 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 55% | Draw 28% | Brescia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Cittadella 1.55 / Brescia 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.994 / def 1.079 | Brescia attack 0.711 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Brescia xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Brescia kick off?
Cittadella vs Brescia kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 1 March 2023 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Brescia?
Cittadella 0 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Cittadella vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Brescia part of?
Cittadella vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 55% chance of winning, Brescia a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cittadella and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Brescia?
Record (3 meetings): Cittadella 1W | Draws 2 | Brescia 0W.
What form are Cittadella and Brescia in?
Cittadella (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Brescia (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cittadella's attack rating (0.99) and Brescia's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.71x) against Cittadella's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
55%
1.83
28%
3.63
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.33
0.78
Brescia xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
4%
26.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Cittadella and 0.78 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Brescia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Cittadella have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 21W 22D 21L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia's form line: 21W 22D 21L from 64 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Cittadella against 1.33 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cittadella have posted 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (10W 10D 10L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 9W 10D 11L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cittadella are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.11 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Brescia in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 21W 22D 21L in their last 64 games (1.33 PPG), while Brescia have gone 21W 22D 21L in their last 64 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Brescia away?
Cittadella's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.33 PPG; Brescia away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Brescia in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cittadella have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cittadella
3
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Brescia?
From 8 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 3, Brescia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Cittadella 0-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Brescia?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 40%, Brescia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cittadella) and 37% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Cittadella have failed to score in 37% of games; Brescia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cittadella's recent matches and 47% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cittadella's recent games and 37% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Brescia tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Brescia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cittadella's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella and Brescia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.55 xG and Brescia 0.78 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cittadella fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Brescia attack 0.71 / defence 1.30, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 55% | Draw 28% | Brescia 18%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 34%, Brescia 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (64 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brescia's trading profile (64 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.33 PPG, Brescia 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.