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Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Padova 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria beat Padova 1-0 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.69 xG and Padova 1.08 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Padova landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 1.10 / defence 1.10 against Padova attack 0.93 / defence 1.20, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 51% | Draw 26% | Padova 24%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 42%, Padova 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Padova's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.08 PPG, Padova 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Padova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights