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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Reggiana edge out Sampdoria 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reggiana beat Sampdoria 1-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.03 xG and Sampdoria 0.97 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.78 / defence 1.16 against Sampdoria attack 0.79 / defence 0.96, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 34% | Draw 34% | Sampdoria 31%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 48%, Sampdoria 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Sampdoria's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.04 PPG, Sampdoria 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights