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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Reggiana and Carrarese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reggiana and Carrarese finished level at 2-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.20 xG and Carrarese 0.76 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Reggiana beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carrarese outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.78 / defence 1.00 against Carrarese attack 0.70 / defence 1.24, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 44% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 21%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 35%, Carrarese 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Carrarese's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.12 PPG, Carrarese 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights