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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Reggiana and Avellino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 26, as Reggiana and Avellino drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.31 xG and Avellino 0.89 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Avellino attack 0.75 / defence 1.18, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reggiana 46% | Draw 29% | Avellino 25%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 52%, Avellino 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reggiana's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Avellino's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.00 PPG, Avellino 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights