Pordenone 0-1 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pordenone vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Perugia make the trip to Stadio Guido Teghil to face Pordenone in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 1.39 xG and Perugia 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Perugia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 2.046. Data: 0 Pordenone games / 0 Perugia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pordenone 24% | Draw 27% | Perugia 49%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Perugia 2.04. Perugia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Perugia as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Perugia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 24% | Draw 27% | Perugia 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Pordenone 1.39 / Perugia 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Perugia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.418 / away 2.046 • Poisson stance: Perugia (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Perugia xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Perugia kick off?
Pordenone vs Perugia kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Perugia?
Pordenone 0 - 1 Perugia.
Where is Pordenone vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Perugia part of?
Pordenone vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 24% chance of winning, Perugia a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Pordenone and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Perugia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pordenone and Perugia in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pordenone's attack at 0.85x the league average against Perugia's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.85x) against Pordenone's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
24%
4.21
27%
3.66
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Pordenone xG
Total xG
3.39
2.00
Perugia xG
4.21
24%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
14%
7.39
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
3%
31.11
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Pordenone and 2.00 for Perugia, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Pre-Season
Perugia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pordenone
0
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Perugia?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 1, Perugia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Perugia 0-1 Pordenone.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Perugia edge out Pordenone 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Pordenone 0-1 at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 1.39 xG and Perugia 2.00 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pordenone fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Perugia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Perugia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 24% | Draw 27% | Perugia 49%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.