Ascoli 1-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ascoli and Cosenza meet at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.42 xG and Cosenza 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Cosenza attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.427 / away 1.005. Data: 0 Ascoli games / 0 Cosenza games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ascoli 15% | Draw 36% | Cosenza 49%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 6.67 | Draw 2.78 | Cosenza 2.04. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS probability 21% | Total xG 1.40. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.40 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 79% — Ascoli's lower xG of 0.42 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 21%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.40 combined xG gives a 17% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 15% | Draw 36% | Cosenza 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% | BTTS 21% | xG Ascoli 0.42 / Cosenza 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Cosenza attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.427 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.42
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cosenza xG
21%
BTTS
41%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Cosenza kick off?
Ascoli vs Cosenza kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Ascoli 1 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Ascoli vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Cosenza part of?
Ascoli vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 15% chance of winning, Cosenza a 49% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 21% probability that both Ascoli and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cosenza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Cosenza in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ascoli's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.42. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.85x) against Ascoli's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 26.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (22.9%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 61% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
15%
6.50
36%
2.79
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
24.2%
Away win
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.42
Ascoli xG
Total xG
1.40
0.98
Cosenza xG
6.50
15%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
41%
Over 1.5
2.44
59%
Under 1.5
1.69
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
21%
BTTS Yes
4.68
79%
BTTS No
1.27
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
66%
1.52
Win to Nil
6%
17.35
32%
3.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.7 | 24.2 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.0%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 0.42 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.98 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Pre-Season
Cosenza
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Cosenza have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cosenza won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ascoli have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 3, Cosenza have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2024, when Ascoli 0-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Cosenza?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Ascoli defy the odds to beat Cosenza 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Cosenza 1-0 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.42 xG and Cosenza 0.98 xG, a combined 1.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Cosenza attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 15% | Draw 36% | Cosenza 49%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Ascoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 41% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 21% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.