Benevento 4-3 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Alessandria at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Alessandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alessandria make the trip to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to face Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 0.42 xG and Alessandria 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Alessandria attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.427 / away 1.005. Data: 0 Benevento games / 0 Alessandria games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Benevento 15% | Draw 36% | Alessandria 49%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 6.67 | Draw 2.78 | Alessandria 2.04. Alessandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS probability 21% | Total xG 1.40. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.40 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 79% — Benevento's lower xG of 0.42 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 21%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alessandria are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alessandria if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.40 combined xG gives a 17% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 15% | Draw 36% | Alessandria 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% | BTTS 21% | xG Benevento 0.42 / Alessandria 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Alessandria attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.427 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Alessandria (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.42
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Alessandria xG
21%
BTTS
41%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Alessandria kick off?
Benevento vs Alessandria kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Alessandria?
Benevento 4 - 3 Alessandria.
Where is Benevento vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Alessandria part of?
Benevento vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 15% chance of winning, Alessandria a 49% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Alessandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 21% probability that both Benevento and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Alessandria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Alessandria in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Benevento's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Alessandria's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.42. Flip it around — Alessandria's attack (0.85x) against Benevento's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 26.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (22.9%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 61% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alessandria Win
15%
6.50
36%
2.79
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
24.2%
Away win
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.42
Benevento xG
Total xG
1.40
0.98
Alessandria xG
6.50
15%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
41%
Over 1.5
2.44
59%
Under 1.5
1.69
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
21%
BTTS Yes
4.68
79%
BTTS No
1.27
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
66%
1.52
Win to Nil
6%
17.35
32%
3.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.7 | 24.2 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.0%.
How many goals are Benevento and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.42 expected goals for Benevento and 0.98 for Alessandria, a combined total of 1.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Pre-Season
Alessandria
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Benevento
0
Draws
1
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Alessandria have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Alessandria 2-0 Benevento.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Benevento defy the odds to beat Alessandria 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Alessandria 4-3 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 0.42 xG and Alessandria 0.98 xG, a combined 1.40. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Benevento beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alessandria outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Alessandria attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 15% | Draw 36% | Alessandria 49%, with Alessandria to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Benevento win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 41% and landed. Over 3.5 was 5% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 21% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.