Pisa vs Bari – Match Report

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Pisa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pisa beat Bari 2-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.19 xG and Bari 0.98 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.28 / defence 0.92 against Bari attack 0.96 / defence 0.73, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 38% | Draw 34% | Bari 28%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 57%, Bari 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Bari's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pisa 1.44 PPG, Bari 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights