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Poisson model rates Pisa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Pisa host Bari at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Pisa have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 5W 5D 0L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bari — All Games: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bari's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pisa at 1.80 PPG versus Bari's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Pisa have won 0, Bari 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Pisa in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).

Bari in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 68% and Bari 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 57% | Bari 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.19 xG and Bari 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.282 / defence 0.920 | Bari attack 0.961 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.110. Pisa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 1.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bari's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Pisa games / 54 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pisa 38% | Draw 34% | Bari 28%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Bari 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 70% | Bari 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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