Palermo 0-3 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palermo host Venezia at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Palermo — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palermo have posted 6W 0D 4L at Stadio Renzo Barbera — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palermo 1.70 PPG, Venezia 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Palermo have won 1, Venezia 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Palermo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Venezia trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Palermo 58% and Venezia 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 51% | Venezia 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.87 xG and Venezia 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.418 / defence 1.122 | Venezia attack 1.173 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.224. Palermo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.418 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 67 Palermo games / 67 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 44% | Draw 24% | Venezia 33%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Venezia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 60% | Venezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 44% | Draw 24% | Venezia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Palermo 1.87 / Venezia 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.418 / def 1.122 | Venezia attack 1.173 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Palermo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Venezia xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Venezia kick off?
Palermo vs Venezia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Venezia?
Palermo 0 - 3 Venezia.
Where is Palermo vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Venezia part of?
Palermo vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 44% chance of winning, Venezia a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Palermo and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Venezia?
Record (3 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 0 | Venezia 2W.
What form are Palermo and Venezia in?
Palermo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Venezia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palermo's attack rating (1.42) and Venezia's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
44%
2.29
24%
4.25
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Palermo xG
Total xG
3.48
1.61
Venezia xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
9%
11.49
5%
19.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Palermo and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Palermo and 1.61 for Venezia, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palermo come into this having played 67 games, going 25W 23D 19L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.54 PPG from 67 outings (29W 16D 22L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.46 PPG, Venezia on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Palermo's home form reads 16W 9D 8L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.24 points per game from 33 outings (11W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.55 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 63%.
Last 67 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Venezia in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 25W 23D 19L in their last 67 games (1.46 PPG), while Venezia have gone 29W 16D 22L in their last 67 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Venezia away?
Palermo's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.73 PPG; Venezia away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Mar 2024, when Venezia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palermo's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Palermo
1
Draws
6
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Venezia?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Venezia have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Venezia 2-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 52%, Venezia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Palermo) and 52% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Venezia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Palermo's recent matches and 54% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Palermo's recent games and 52% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Venezia tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Venezia in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Venezia run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Palermo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Palermo 0-3 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.87 xG and Venezia 1.61 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Palermo fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Venezia outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.42 / defence 1.12 against Venezia attack 1.17 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 44% | Draw 24% | Venezia 33%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 51%, Venezia 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Venezia's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.46 PPG, Venezia 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.