Reggiana 0-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Spezia travel to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to take on Reggiana. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reggiana stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Reggiana's home record at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spezia have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Spezia have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Reggiana) versus 1.30 (Spezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Reggiana register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Spezia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Reggiana, 0 for Spezia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Reggiana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Reggiana in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Spezia in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 55% versus Spezia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 38% | Spezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.22 xG and Spezia 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.755 / defence 1.086 | Spezia attack 0.827 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.220. Reggiana's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Spezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Reggiana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Reggiana games / 29 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 38% | Draw 30% | Spezia 32%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Spezia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Reggiana 70% | Spezia 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 38% | Draw 30% | Spezia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Reggiana 1.22 / Spezia 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.755 / def 1.086 | Spezia attack 0.827 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Spezia xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Spezia kick off?
Reggiana vs Spezia kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Spezia?
Reggiana 0 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Reggiana vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Spezia part of?
Reggiana vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 38% chance of winning, Spezia a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Reggiana and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Spezia?
Record (1 meetings): Reggiana 1W | Draws 0 | Spezia 0W.
What form are Reggiana and Spezia in?
Reggiana (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Spezia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Reggiana's attack rating (0.76) and Spezia's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
38%
2.63
30%
3.33
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.32
1.10
Spezia xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.10 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Reggiana have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 7W 15D 7L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Spezia's form line: 6W 12D 11L from 29 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 1.24 PPG, Spezia on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Reggiana have posted 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (2W 9D 3L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 3W 5D 6L from 14 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Reggiana are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.97 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Spezia in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 7W 15D 7L in their last 29 games (1.24 PPG), while Spezia have gone 6W 12D 11L in their last 29 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Spezia away?
Reggiana's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.07 PPG; Spezia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Spezia in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Reggiana's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Reggiana
2
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Spezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 3, Spezia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Spezia 0-1 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Spezia?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Spezia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 71%, Spezia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Reggiana) and 64% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Spezia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Spezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Reggiana's games and 57% of Spezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Reggiana's recent games and 64% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Spezia tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Spezia in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reggiana's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana and Spezia finished level at 0-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.22 xG and Spezia 1.10 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reggiana fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Spezia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.76 / defence 1.09 against Spezia attack 0.83 / defence 1.28, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 38% | Draw 30% | Spezia 32%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 38%, Spezia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spezia's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.24 PPG, Spezia 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.