Palermo 2-3 Ternana – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Palermo at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Ternana encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Ternana make the trip to Stadio Renzo Barbera to face Palermo in Serie B (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Tuesday 27 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time.

Form

Palermo (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Palermo's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Ternana have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Ternana have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Palermo's favour (2.10 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Palermo's last 10 home games and Ternana's last 10 away games) — Palermo have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ternana in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Ternana edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Palermo 1–1 Ternana — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 58% versus Ternana 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 50% | Ternana 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Palermo surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Ternana have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Ternana surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Palermo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 2.12 xG and Ternana 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.417 / defence 1.009 | Ternana attack 1.050 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.204. Palermo carry an above-average attack rating of 1.417 — their 2.12 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Palermo's last 64 games and Ternana's last 64.

Result probabilities: Palermo 56% | Draw 23% | Ternana 21%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.80 | Draw 4.30 | Ternana 4.72. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.12 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Palermo's last 10 home games and Ternana's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Palermo 60% (last 10 home games) | Ternana 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights