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Dominant Palermo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sudtirol.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palermo beat Sudtirol 3-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.33 xG and Sudtirol 0.74 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.30 / defence 0.79 against Sudtirol attack 0.88 / defence 0.81, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palermo 50% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 20%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 46%, Sudtirol 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palermo's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sudtirol's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palermo 1.59 PPG, Sudtirol 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights