Palermo 1-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 39%, yet in-form Pisa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Palermo vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Renzo Barbera to take on Palermo. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 January 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pisa — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Pisa's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Palermo's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Palermo, 2 for Pisa and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Pisa trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 52% versus Pisa 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 48% | Pisa 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.03 xG and Pisa 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.949 / defence 0.722 | Pisa attack 0.923 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.115. Palermo's defence rating of 0.722 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Palermo games / 61 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 39% | Draw 38% | Pisa 23%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.56 | Draw 2.63 | Pisa 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pisa (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 20% | Pisa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 39% | Draw 38% | Pisa 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Palermo 1.03 / Pisa 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.949 / def 0.722 | Pisa attack 0.923 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Palermo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Pisa xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Pisa kick off?
Palermo vs Pisa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 31 January 2025 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Pisa?
Palermo 1 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Palermo vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Pisa part of?
Palermo vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 39% chance of winning, Pisa a 23% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Palermo and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Pisa?
Record (5 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 2 | Pisa 2W.
What form are Palermo and Pisa in?
Palermo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palermo's attack at 0.95x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
39%
2.58
38%
2.62
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Palermo xG
Total xG
1.77
0.74
Pisa xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Palermo and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Palermo and 0.74 for Pisa, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palermo's recent record stands at 22W 16D 23L from 61 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 25W 19D 17L across 61 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.34 PPG, Pisa on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Palermo have managed 13W 7D 10L from 30 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 10W 8D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.44 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 64%.
Last 61 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Pisa in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 22W 16D 23L in their last 61 games (1.34 PPG), while Pisa have gone 25W 19D 17L in their last 61 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Pisa away?
Palermo's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.53 PPG; Pisa away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pisa have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Palermo's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Palermo
2
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Pisa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Palermo 1-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 47%, Pisa 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Palermo) and 43% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Pisa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Palermo's recent matches and 57% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Palermo's recent games and 43% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Pisa tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Pisa in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Palermo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Palermo 1-2 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.03 xG and Pisa 0.74 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.95 / defence 0.72 against Pisa attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 39% | Draw 38% | Pisa 23%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Pisa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 48%, Pisa 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.34 PPG, Pisa 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.