Palermo 3-0 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Feralpisalo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Feralpisalo make the trip to Stadio Renzo Barbera to face Palermo in Serie B (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Current Form
Palermo's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Palermo's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Palermo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Feralpisalo (all games): 0W 0D 3L across their last 3 — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
The form ledger tips toward Palermo. A 1.10 PPG lead over Feralpisalo (1.10 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Feralpisalo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 67% of Palermo's games and 0% of Feralpisalo's. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 67% | Feralpisalo 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.76 xG and Feralpisalo 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.064 / defence 0.980 | Feralpisalo attack 0.640 / defence 1.367. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.080. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.367 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Palermo's projected output up. Feralpisalo's attack rating of 0.640 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Data: built from Palermo's last 40 games and Feralpisalo's last 3. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Palermo 62% | Draw 25% | Feralpisalo 13%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.60 | Draw 4.01 | Feralpisalo 7.89. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (62%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Palermo 70% (last 10 home games) | Feralpisalo 0% (last 3 games).
The Poisson model's sample (Palermo 40 games, Feralpisalo 3) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 4 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 62% | Draw 25% | Feralpisalo 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Palermo 1.76 / Feralpisalo 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.064 / def 0.980 | Feralpisalo attack 0.640 / def 1.367 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Palermo (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Feralpisalo xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palermo vs Feralpisalo FAQs
What time does Palermo vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Palermo vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Feralpisalo?
Palermo 3 - 0 Feralpisalo.
Where is Palermo vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Feralpisalo part of?
Palermo vs Feralpisalo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 4) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 62% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Palermo and Feralpisalo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Palermo vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Palermo's attack rating (1.06) and Feralpisalo's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Feralpisalo's attack (0.64x) against Palermo's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from Palermo's last 40 games and Feralpisalo's last 3, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
62%
1.60
25%
4.01
13%
7.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.44
0.68
Feralpisalo xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
7.89
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
2%
46.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 10.4 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palermo vs Feralpisalo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Palermo and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Palermo and 0.68 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Feralpisalo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Palermo's recent record stands at 1W 2D 0L from 3 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-D-W in the last five.
Feralpisalo, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 3L across 3 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palermo by 1.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Feralpisalo heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palermo are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Feralpisalo are on 0.00 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palermo have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Feralpisalo in 0%.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Early Season
Feralpisalo
Early Season
Palermo (Home) vs Feralpisalo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palermo
Early Season
Feralpisalo
Early Season
❓ Palermo vs Feralpisalo Form FAQs
What form are Palermo and Feralpisalo in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Feralpisalo have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have Palermo or Feralpisalo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Feralpisalo in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Palermo
0
Draws
0
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Palermo vs Feralpisalo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Feralpisalo?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Palermo have won 2, Feralpisalo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Feralpisalo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2024: Feralpisalo 1-2 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Feralpisalo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 67% (Palermo) and 0% (Feralpisalo) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Palermo) and 33% (Feralpisalo).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 33% of games; Feralpisalo in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palermo vs Feralpisalo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palermo and Feralpisalo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Palermo's recent matches and 0% of Feralpisalo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palermo and Feralpisalo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Palermo's recent games and 33% of Feralpisalo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Feralpisalo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Palermo's recent matches and 100% of Feralpisalo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palermo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Feralpisalo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Feralpisalo 3-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.76 xG and Feralpisalo 0.68 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.06 / defence 0.98 against Feralpisalo attack 0.64 / defence 1.37, drawn from 40/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 62% | Draw 25% | Feralpisalo 13%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 67%, Feralpisalo 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Feralpisalo's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Palermo scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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