Reggiana 1-3 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggiana vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palermo make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Reggiana in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Reggiana (all games): 0W 1D 1L across 2 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Reggiana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Palermo are 0.60 PPG clear of Reggiana in recent Serie B fixtures (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.00 xG and Palermo 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.871 / defence 1.150 | Palermo attack 0.950 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.035. Data: 2 Reggiana games / 39 Palermo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 30% | Draw 33% | Palermo 37%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Palermo 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Aug 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 30% | Draw 33% | Palermo 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Reggiana 1.00 / Palermo 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.871 / def 1.150 | Palermo attack 0.950 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Palermo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Palermo xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Palermo kick off?
Reggiana vs Palermo kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 29 August 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Palermo?
Reggiana 1 - 3 Palermo.
Where is Reggiana vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Palermo part of?
Reggiana vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 30% chance of winning, Palermo a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Reggiana and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggiana and Palermo in?
Reggiana (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D. Palermo (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reggiana's attack rating (0.87) and Palermo's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (0.95x) against Reggiana's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
The sample (2/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
30%
3.31
33%
3.05
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.13
1.13
Palermo xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
10%
10.24
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.13 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Reggiana have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Reggiana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo's form line: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Reggiana.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggiana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Palermo in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Palermo have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have Reggiana or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Palermo in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Reggiana
1
Draws
3
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 2, Palermo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Reggiana 1-1 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reggiana's recent matches and 50% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggiana vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reggiana's recent games and 50% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Palermo tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Palermo in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Reggiana 1-3 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.00 xG and Palermo 1.13 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palermo outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Palermo attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 2/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 30% | Draw 33% | Palermo 37%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 50%, Palermo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Reggiana shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.