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Dominant Palermo run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Carrarese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palermo beat Carrarese 5-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.47 xG and Carrarese 1.03 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carrarese landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Carrarese attack 1.08 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palermo 46% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 25%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 43%, Carrarese 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palermo's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Carrarese's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palermo 1.41 PPG, Carrarese 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights