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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Palermo and Carrarese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 34, as Palermo and Carrarese drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.88 xG and Carrarese 0.87 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Palermo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.19 / defence 1.05 against Carrarese attack 0.72 / defence 1.20, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palermo 60% | Draw 24% | Carrarese 16%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 49%, Carrarese 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palermo's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Carrarese's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palermo 1.38 PPG, Carrarese 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights