Palermo 1-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 34 as Palermo welcome Carrarese to Stadio Renzo Barbera. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Palermo at Stadio Renzo Barbera this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Carrarese — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Carrarese away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Palermo) versus 1.30 (Carrarese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Palermo, 1 for Carrarese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with Carrarese winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Carrarese trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 57% versus Carrarese 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 49% | Carrarese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.88 xG and Carrarese 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.192 / defence 1.048 | Carrarese attack 0.717 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.160. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Palermo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 75 Palermo games / 37 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 60% | Draw 24% | Carrarese 16%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Carrarese 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 50% | Carrarese 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 60% | Draw 24% | Carrarese 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Palermo 1.88 / Carrarese 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.192 / def 1.048 | Carrarese attack 0.717 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Palermo (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Carrarese xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Carrarese kick off?
Palermo vs Carrarese kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Carrarese?
Palermo 1 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Palermo vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Carrarese part of?
Palermo vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 60% chance of winning, Carrarese a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Palermo and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Carrarese?
Record (1 meetings): Palermo 0W | Draws 0 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Palermo and Carrarese in?
Palermo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.19x the league average against Carrarese's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.16
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.75
0.87
Carrarese xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
2%
40.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Palermo and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Palermo and 0.87 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Carrarese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 14W 9D 14L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Carrarese's form line: 11W 11D 15L from 37 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.38 PPG, Carrarese on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (8W 4D 6L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 6D 11L from 18 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.03 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Current Season
Carrarese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 14W 9D 14L in their last 37 games (1.38 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 11W 11D 15L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Carrarese away?
Palermo's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.56 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Palermo or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Carrarese in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Palermo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2025, when Palermo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palermo's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Palermo
1
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Palermo have won 2, Carrarese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Carrarese 0-1 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Carrarese?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 44%, Carrarese 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Palermo) and 50% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Carrarese in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Palermo's recent matches and 56% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Palermo's recent games and 50% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Carrarese tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo and Carrarese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 34, as Palermo and Carrarese drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.88 xG and Carrarese 0.87 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Palermo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.19 / defence 1.05 against Carrarese attack 0.72 / defence 1.20, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 60% | Draw 24% | Carrarese 16%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 49%, Carrarese 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Carrarese's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.38 PPG, Carrarese 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.