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Prediction vindicated as Padova edge out Carrarese 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Padova beat Carrarese 1-0 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.57 xG and Carrarese 1.46 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Carrarese landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.89 / defence 1.25 against Carrarese attack 1.09 / defence 1.34, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Padova 40% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 35%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 44%, Carrarese 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Padova's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Carrarese's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Padova 1.13 PPG, Carrarese 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Padova win broke the near-deadlock. Padova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights